Carlsbad, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

106
FXUS64 KMAF 260845
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

- Record-breaking high temperatures are expected again today.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are
  anticipated again today, especially over Southeast New Mexico
  and adjacent areas of West Texas.

- A strong cold front is expected to sweep through the region
  Friday morning, bringing windy conditions to the area
  (especially Guadalupe Pass) and a much cooler weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday afternoon)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

The heat continues, at least for one more day.  WV imagery this
morning shows that the upper ridge has developed east over the past
24 hours, and is currently centered over Chihuahua.  This feature
will provide one last day of balmy weather for West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  As expected, Midland International Air &
Space Port hit a high of 93 F, beating the old record of 92 set in
2020.

Latest observations show return flow over the plains, w/the KMAF VWP
showing a 40 kt LLJ right off the deck to assist, courtesy of
leeside troughing over the Front Range.  This will keep overnight
minimums over 20 F above climatology.

Starting from such warm lows, record-breaking temperatures are
expected again this afternoon, aided by mostly sunny skies,
increasing thicknesses under the ridge, and return flow.  This will
be the warmest day this forecast as highs plateau a good 20-25 F
above normal.  The only downside to this will be elevated fire
weather conditions.  See fire wx discussion below for more details.

To spoil the warmer weather, another cold front arrives late
tonight/Friday morning, w/the latest NAM buffer soundings holding
steady with a fropa at KMAF at around 11Z.  Although fropa timing
hasn`t changed, models have strengthened the front/CAA, and now NBM
cools highs Friday afternoon to ~ 5-10 F below normal, almost 30 F
cooler than this afternoon!  This will also make for a strong
gradient/windy Friday, and we`ll issue a High Wind Watch for the
Guadalupes/Delawares, especially KGDP, where high gap winds will
develop late tonight through Saturday morning.  This may need to be
expanded onto the adjacent plains later.  Wind advisories will be
needed Friday over the rest of Southeast New Mexico and most of West
Texas.  Dry soils ensure dust advisories will be needed, as well.
Unfortunately, this does not appear to be the fabled Easter cold
spell, as both the GFS and ECMWF hint at another cold front during
the first week or so of April.  Stay tuned...

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Friday night, a stratus deck is forecast to develop behind the
front, and models develop isolated rain showers over the southeast
Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos.  Saturday, surface winds are
forecast to veer back to return flow, but late enough that highs
will only recover a degree or so from Friday`s.

The upper ridge will continue developing east through Texas and into
the Gulf the rest of the week.  Sunday, with return flow cranking
again, a more substantial recovery begins as highs leap over 15 F,
to around 10 F above normal.  Monday afternoon/evening, convection
will be possible as a shortwave moves through the region.

Temperatures will then inch up under zonal-to-southwest flow aloft
through Tuesday afternoon, when highs climb into the 90s many
locations, around 15 F above normal.  Wednesday, models bring a Pac
front through the area, shaving a couple of degrees off highs.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, with a high cloud or
two.  Return flow will persist through Thursday afternoon, gusty
at times.  Surface winds will either veer or back, depending on
the terminal, after sundown due to an approaching cold front. The
cold front should make it through KHOB by the end of the forecast
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Fire wx concerns will continue today due to unseasonably warm
temperatures.  Low single-digit RH continues, along with ERCs 75+
percentile, with increasing severity running southeast-to-northwest
and into Southeast New Mexico.  Fuels remain dry/critically dry, as
well, closely correlating w/ERCs.  The one missing ingredient
continues to be substantial 20-ft winds.  Under the upper ridge,
they just can`t develop sufficiently to warrant a warning attm. That
said, only elevated to near-critical conditions at best are
anticipated today.  The area of concern will be Southeast New Mexico
and adjacent areas of West Texas, where increased 20-ft winds will
coincide with critical relative humidity.

A strong cold front arrives Friday, and this may result in a few
hours of isolated critical fire wx conditions along/behind the front
before cooler temperatures advect into the region.  However, the
timing of the front (late night/early morning) looks to be such that
the higher winds occur before warmer temperatures have a chance to
materialize.  Thus, we`ll forgo any watch/warning products attm.
Instead, we`ll highlight the front in routine products.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  55  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                101  55  68  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   91  60  83  51 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Stockton           100  60  71  46 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           90  53  61  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    98  50  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    93  50  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     94  56  66  44 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   95  56  66  45 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     99  54  67  44 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware
     Mountains.

NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99